Why Sarah Palin Will Not Be The GOP Nominee In 2012

Epitaphs are being written. Next steps considered. Late October is beginning to look a lot like late May did in the Democratic primary, when everyone knew the race was over except the candidate facing Barack Obama. Then, it was Hillary Clinton. This time, John McCain and Sarah Palin.

GOP partisans and pundits alike are turning to the new big question: WWSPD? On Thursday, Marc Ambinder posted "Palin 2012: The Argument." He laid out a valid and compelling case for why Sarah Palin will be the candidate to beat in the Republican primary, come 2012. I'd like to consider the opposite argument: Why Sarah Palin Won't Be the Nominee In 2012.

Decline of the Culture War
If we do, as it appears we will, slip into a bona fide Depression, it's unlikely we'll dig ourselves out in just four years - in which case, economic issues will again trump a manufactured culture war in 2012. The Evangelical community will be split between Huckabee and Palin, and post mortems of the '08 campaign are unlikely to sit well with Republicans, who aren't fond of victims in the same way Democrats are.

With the new Congress, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage will be a practical impossibility, and the issue will have settled onto states' shoulders. Several more states will have voted to allow it, and a handful will criminalize it. Either way, it will have a greatly reduced impact on national politics. And with a Democratic administration that is actively inclusive of the faith-based community, many churches will cease to be hotbeds of GOP organizing.

The Republicans are more likely to launch their attacks from the fiscal right, lining up behind Mitt Romney or the one man who has waged a successful revolt against a popular Democratic president: Newt Gingrich. A solid and unwavering fiscal conservative with a winning record and some experience reaching across the aisle (after leaving Congress).

A Maverick at the Party
In 2012, Sarah Palin will be in the unenviable position of rallying party loyalists from the standpoint of a "Maverick." When McCain faced the same crossroads this election cycle, he opted to toe the party line. Palin's own values and mores are much more in line with the party base than McCain's, so she shouldn't have so hard a time. But something's got to give, and in an election cycle when Republicans are challengers, rather than incumbents, a centrist appeal will be crucial to winning the general election.

If Sarah Palin finds herself in a primary battle against Newt Gingrich, a straight-talking, unflappable institution of the Republican party, she'll be forced into more "Maverick" grandstanding - a role she savors, but which doesn't give the gravitas she'll need to make her case to the general public.

Dr. Frankenstein's Moment of Recognition
The party that unleashed Sarah Palin on the world seems to have recognized that its monster is, indeed, alive - and many Republicans are stepping back slowly. She's already lost the support of conservative elites from the Wall Street Journal to the National Review and over the next four years, she may find herself hung out to dry, without the enduring support of a party that worked so hard to apply lipstick to whatever animal this candidacy was. As she finishes out her gubernatorial term without the benefit of McCain's cadre of lawyers, will she encounter more abuse-of-power trouble? As the press and the party has more time to vet her, will the unsavory (and patently unAmerican - sorry, Sarah, to use your word) activities of the AIP come back to haunt her?

The trick for the GOP in 2012 will be finding a way to harness the genie's magic while quietly placing the genie back in the bottle from whence she came.

Republican Mob Puts the GOP Brand in Jeopardy

(This was originally post at Huffington Post)

A lot of ink has been shed this election cycle on the topic of "rebuilding the Republican brand." Indeed, the Grand Old Party finds itself at a most dire juncture. On one side it has an incumbent leader with historically low approval ratings who is losing mounting court cases on the philosophy of national security he put in place and who is battling multiple catastrophes that fundamentally undermine the Republican philosophy of governance and economics. On the other side the party is fielding a presidential candidate whose main appeal has been his refusal to toe the party line and a vice presidential candidate who caters to one constituency of the party and is mostly unappealing to the rest. The GOP, three weeks from the presidential election, is in the throes of a wrenching identity crisis.

As a brand marketer, I spend my time crafting strategy and messages that enable brands to connect with consumers in a meaningful way. Cohesion, consistency and lifestyle appeal are crucial. In short, you want consumers to see your product and say "I know that brand, and it's the brand for people like me."

Warriors vs. Thinkers
In the past, Republicans have been successful at defining themselves in that light, using wedge issues to illuminate and exaggerate the difference between demographics, ultimately concluding "Republicans are people like me." We all remember Karl Rove's three winning Gs: God, guns and gays. With a vast, coordinated effort in 2000 and 2004, Republicans introduced state-level ballot initiatives that dovetailed with their national strategy of painting their opponents as "extreme" and "different" -- and therefore unacceptable.

But in 2008, something has broken down for Republicans, and there's more to blame than just a stacked deck. The GOP has a new face, and it's not the face of Sarah Palin. It is the face of anger, hatred and violence, and it threatens to eat away the Republican Party from the inside.

Led by war hero McCain and bellicose strategist Steve Schmidt in its battle to defeat a former president of the Harvard Law Review, the Republicans have divided the nation into "warriors" and "thinkers." Schmidt is a Rove protege who shares his mentor's love of underhanded tactics but none of his subtlety. Schmidt's strategy: boil Rove's signature wedge attack down to its most basic level, "otherness," and wage a campaign on this topic alone. This means painting Senator Obama as "elite" or "exotic" -- code words for "different" which, when applied to an ethnic minority, add up to clear race-baiting.

A New Republican Voice
On some fronts, his efforts have seen short-term success. Schmidt's insistence on the unorthodox (read: mavericky) choice of running mate Sarah Palin energized the base in a way that John McCain alone (or McCain's preferred pick of pro-choice Democratic exile Joe Lieberman) never could have. And recently, as the campaign reverted to character attacks, this newly energized base has taken their passion to a new and scary level.

In just the past week, Republicans at McCain and Palin speeches have shouted epithets, threatened violence and directed racial slurs at those in attendance -- and the news media has taken note. With the race heating up and policy debate taking a backseat to negative campaigning, this type of vitriol is becoming the main story in itself.

As McCain and Palin do nothing to tamp down the bloodlust among their supporters, they tacitly facilitate the rise of a new Republican voice. An angry, insular, xenophobic voice. And in so doing, the Republican Party, already facing an identity crisis, is defining itself anew for the next generation of voters.

The New "Others"
The American people are not, by and large, racists. We are a reasonable people who excel when the chips are down. We have been given to mob mentality and flights of fancy at times in our history, but what has made the country a superpower is its people. In 1968, when Robert F. Kennedy declared, shortly before his death, that the United States would elect an African-American president "in the next 40 years," this was a statement of his firm confidence, not that African-Americans were "worthy," but that American voters were wise. He believed in the ability of the American public to make decisions based on rationale and decency.

And in that sense, those who would advocate violence ("kill him!" - Florida, "off with his head!" - Pennsylvania), or make ridiculous, wild-eyed accusations ("terrorist!" - Pennsylvania) or hurl epithets at a professional doing his job ("sit down, boy!" - Florida) -- they are the ones who are "not like us."

At a time when a generation of new voters is swept up in a tide of support for Barack Obama, the GOP faces a bleak choice. Continuing this spiral away from decency into violent xenophobia; that is, toward extremism and away from the fundamental tenets of love and unselfishness that tie all religious traditions together. The party, with Schmidt at the tiller, is risking permanent damage to the Republican brand.

BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: Sources indicate that Barack Obama’s middle name is Hussein. The name, which runs in the Obama family, is also the name of former Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein. Many prominent pundits and political analysts have faulted Senator Obama for his middle name, pointing out that his decision to be named Barack Hussein Obama is an undeniable indicator of his terrorist sympathy.

Barack Obama spent a portion of his childhood in Indonesia, where his middle name helped him feel at home among the nation’s 200 million Muslims.

"I remember playing with Barack when we were nine years old," says Buana Bati, a childhood friend. “All the older boys held their sticks like they were guns and would scream 'death to America!' We weren’t quite sure what they meant by that, but Barack was never bashful. He stepped forward and said 'my middle name is Hussein!' He was immediately accepted in their group."

Upon returning to the United States and later matriculating at Columbia University in New York City, Barack Obama kept his middle name a secret. "I was determined not to let them know my true identity," Obama wrote in his memoir, Dreams From My Father. "Once they heard me utter the name Hussein, I knew my secret would be out." Casual students of the Arabic language may know Hussein to be a common, secular name that means "small, handsome one;" but to Al Qaeda operatives and old jihad hands, any utterance of "Hussein"” is no less than a battle cry.

"In Kandahar, where I grew up, there is a saying," said Nuri Al-Sadr, a recent immigrant to Dearborn, MI; "when Hussein inhabits the White House, the blood of the infidels will run in the streets like water." Mr. Al-Sadr, looking over his shoulder, then added, "of course, no one from my family has said this."

As the general public learns the truth about Senator Obama’s middle name, the reaction has been mixed. Many fervent supporters of Obama’s are unfazed. One such supporter, 21 year-old Kathy Rowlands from San Jose, CA, says "I just know he’s the One. And the Bible tells us that, when the Messiah returns, we may not know him. He may look like Jesus, he may look like Moses. I guess this proves that the Messiah is returning as Mohammed."

Others are less forgiving. Steven Williamson, a pipefitter, life-long Democrat and staunch Hillary Clinton supporter from Philadelphia, PA, shook his head from side to side while wiping a solitary tear from his eye. "I knew it," he said. "I knew it, I knew it, I knew it. From the first time I saw him, debating Hillary Clinton in South Carolina, I said to my wife, I said 'that man right there is a terrorist. And he’s going to bring down our country, sure as I’m sitting here.' Well, I hate to say I told you so."

Obama's Keys To Winning Tonight's Town Hall Debate

With one presidential and one vice presidential debate behind us, a pattern is emerging: each time, the Democratic candidate has come to the table armed with facts and policy proposals, while the Republican catered to pundits and the public with an amalgam of attitude and atmospherics, colloquialisms and avoidance-by-way-of-personal-anecdote.

And in tomorrow's town hall meeting in Nashville, John McCain will be on his home turf. McCain's been described as the "master of the town hall," and Nashville may present his last, best hope of wresting the momentum from Barack Obama. Rest assured, he'll be in fighting form.

Obama, who has been criticized by opponents for being "aloof" and "professorial," may have his work cut out for him. But his laid-back, unflappable demeanor and his down-to-earth lifestyle create an excellent opportunity to connect with the voters in the room and those watching on television. Here's what he needs to do to capitalize:

• Keep it short. Like Al Gore and John Kerry, Barack Obama is a victim of the Progressive's love of policy nuance. The Harvard lawyer may love building and presenting a case, but he'll be speaking to "ordinary Americans" - likely white, working class, and skewing older. He'll need to keep his responses short, pithy and punchy. This is no secret, and he's pulled it off plenty of times, so there's no need to worry; but he'll have to keep it in mind the whole time. Even one belabored answer risks losing the audience for good.
• Make eye contact. And not just with those in the room. Obama should split his time between speaking to the crowd and directly to the camera. In the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday, we all witnessed the contrast between Sarah Palin's eyes staring through the screen and Joe Biden's, cast downward as he addressed moderator Gwen Ifill. Obama will be wise to remember that the people he needs to win over are on the other side of the camera.
• Get a move on. We've all seen Obama in town hall meetings, half-sitting, allowing his comfort with the constituents to create a relaxed, personal atmosphere. Even seated, his presence still commands attention. But this doesn't translate as well on camera. By contrast, John McCain is a mover. He prowls the stage, cracking jokes and addressing his "friends." In the context of the emerging campaign narrative, this contrast can serve Obama well - Obama the cool hand versus the jumpy and erratic McCain - but he must be careful not to cede control of the room. Obama has an advantage standing next to the shorter, stooped McCain, and as he walks with his languid stride, even stepping into the audience to connect with questioners, he can remain the singular focus for the entire 90 minutes.
• Yes, words matter. Obama often uses clinical language, referring to "the middle class." In more populist moments, he opts for "folks." But in informal town halls, he must go a step further, into the second person. I'd like to see him directly address a questioner, or even the television audience, with "you." I'd like to see him ask a follow-up question of those in the audience, put full names to anecdotal characters, even tell stories that extend beyond the campaign trail, into his personal life. The majority of undecided voters are not bigots or cynics - they're just waiting for him to invite them in.

Obama has every advantage a candidate could ask for, and Tuesday night may be his opportunity, not just to extend his lead in the polls, but to upset the undisputed champion of the town hall meeting.

[Cross-post from HuffingtonPost.]

Voting Democratic for the First Time in 50 Years - Profile of an Obamacan

Jo Anne Morse is a 67 year-old retired schoolteacher from Florida who, in nearly 50 years of voting, has never voted for a Democrat. In the interest of full disclosure, she is also the author’s mother.

In 1968, as a military wife with a toddler son and a husband overseas, she voted for Richard Nixon. In 1984, she scoffed at Geraldine Ferraro’s groundbreaking candidacy and voted for Reagan’s second term. Even in 2004, amid an unpopular war and darkening economic skies, she never gave a second thought to supporting George W. Bush’s second term.

So why the sudden change of heart? Simple, she says. She looked around her and realized that, in the words of Barack Obama himself, the stakes were just too high to do the same thing and pray for different results.

The following is a brief interview conducted last week.

You’ve been voting for 50 years. Have you voted Republican in every election?
I have, yeah. All my life, growing up, my parents were always Republicans and I thought that was the thing to do – and here I am, 50 years later! I made my decision differently this year.
Why did you decide to switch this year?

I started listening to what he said, and I was always impressed with the way he ran his campaign. He had people all excited about him – he talked about what they should do and they could do, and it was very exciting to see people thrilled about his candidacy.

I feel like he encourages people to do something – to be more than they are. I think he’s trying to get them up.

The Republicans have said so much in the campaign – that he’s such a liberal senator, and he’s just so left. But I keep thinking to myself, I don’t think he is.

They say “you don’t know somebody till they’re in office, he may raise your taxes,” but I don’t see that.

Are you concerned that he’ll raise your taxes?
Well, he says that he’ll give tax breaks to 95% of the middle class. So I’m not concerned that he will.

Do you feel like we can trust him to do what he says he will do?
Yes, I feel like we can trust him. Once he gets into office, I know he’ll have a lot of people around him pulling him one way or the other. But I feel like he’s a good person and an honest person, and I trust his judgment to do the right thing.

Does Obama address the issues that are important to you in this election?
I think he does.

Do you feel like he understands what’s important to people?
I think he does. He comes from working with the people in Chicago, trying to help them, and I think he’s in touch with people’s needs. We don’t all have the same needs, but I think he wants to help people and get them going.

I decided to vote for him because he has an understanding of what people are going through, and he can find answers for that. I just had a feeling of trusting him and believing that he could do it.

Is he able to find solutions to those problems and bring them about?
He is. He’s obviously a pretty smart guy, and once he gets into office, I think he could find an answer or find a way to an answer for whatever needs to be dealt with.

I’ve sat here watching him on the campaign and – I guess when I think about it, I’m surprised that I’ve gone Democratic, but I feel like he can be trusted. And I believe what he has to say about the war.

You like Obama’s position on the war?
Yeah, to get out. There’s so much on the other side [Republicans’ Iraq positions] that I used to think. But it’s so ridiculous, how long it’s gone on and how many bad things are happening. A lot of people have been lost, and all the money they’ve spent to get this thing right. And maybe now that the violence is down, maybe…

I just thought, well, maybe Obama has the answers. Everybody seems to have come to that point [phased withdrawal] by now – except McCain. I don’t know that McCain is right, either.

What other issues in this election are important to you?
Well, I’m concerned about all the talk of climate change. I think that’s got to be dealt with one way or the other. And I think if we could bring people home from the war, then we could get settled to take care of things here in the US. And I think that’s what we need to do right now.

Jo Anne used to joke that she couldn’t figure out how she and her husband – both socially conservative, fiscally conservative and politically conservative – had raised two liberal sons. Her youngest (yours truly) would respond “you taught us to have an open mind, to care for the neediest among us and to consider the options carefully.” This year, she took her own advice.

About those "Fundamentals"

On Monday, amid one of the most significant and far-reaching financial breakdowns in half a century, John McCain declared, again, that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong." And the Obama campaign jumped on him like he had said "death to America." The gleeful way the Obama campaign reacted made it clear they believe they’ve got their Ace in the hole.

But as any poker player will tell you, an Ace does not a winning hand make. It’s part of a winning hand, but the other cards must fall into place as well.

Ever the Warrior
It’s no secret that McCain is weak on the economy and out of touch with the needs of the average American. But the "strong fundamentals" line wasn’t born of naïveté. It was the result of an old political instinct, something drilled into him since his days in the Naval Academy: project strength.

We know that John McCain’s world view (what Sarah Palin might call the “McCain Doctrine”) revolves around his military background, and his comment on the economy was no different from a statement on an advancing enemy: "We’re strong. We’re prepared. We will win."

McCain sensed that the American people, in a time of crisis and with no incumbent in the election, might be more interested in finding solace than in placing blame. And being reassured by a three-decade Washington veteran that "the fundamentals of our economy are still strong" can go a long way toward placating certain voters.

The Change We Need
Meanwhile, Obama has been hammering him for said out-of-touchness. With the $520 loafers, the multiple homes and the images of McCain golf carting with Bush 41, this label has a good chance of sticking. And if Obama can seize this opportunity, he’s got the election in hand.

But he won’t win this issue by arguing a negative. To establish himself as a leader with Presidential mettle, he’s got to offer the American people – in simple, specific and no uncertain terms – "change we can believe in." Bold leadership on this issue will not only score him an electoral victory, it will cement him as the type of "out-of-the-wilderness" savior many of his supporters believe him to be. A press conference, a bold plan and a groundswell of support among economists and pundits will be his domestic version of the Brandenburg Gate.

Obama mustn’t allow this to turn into a war of which candidate is less out of touch. Obama has gained some ground with his attacks on McCain’s gaffes. Now he needs to pivot toward the positive – toward the future. And in so doing, he’ll find that his winning hand includes a pair of Aces.

Sarah Palin: Twice As Scary

Sarah Palin scares me.  Twice.  She scares me as a Democrat and she scares me as an American.

The Democrat in me is a little spooked that this brainstorm of McCain’s is so crazy it just might work.  She has a compelling story, a spunky* charisma that makes you want to root for her, and she has strong conservative bona fides.  And lots of hair.  In short, she’s everything McCain is not.

Choosing Sarah Palin was a shameless pander on McCain’s part.  A clear signal to anyone who would listen that his is a dangerously flawed candidacy that cannot survive without a shot in the arm.  And she just may be the right shot.  (They say she has a mean 3-pointer, after all.)

Between the two of them, they are insulated from nearly any criticism – the POW card, the woman card, the infant baby with Down’s, the son heading to Iraq.  And she and her husband are sure to make the NASCAR circuit swoon.

On the other hand, Sarah Palin scares me as an American.  On the off-chance that they do win, and she does become the Vice President of the United States,  she is so underqualified, so unschooled in political thought or maneuvering on a national scale – nevermind the global stage – that she would be a disaster.  Her statement a few short months ago that “I wish someone could explain to me just what the VP does” is perfect proof of that.

Take that and put it in the context of the oldest person ever to run for a first term of the presidency – a cancer survivor with unanswered questions about his health.   Suddenly the choice to put this 44 year old with 20 months of executive experience – the mother of a special needs 4 month-old – one heartbeat away from the presidency is simply negligent.

On Friday, she stood next to a man who is older than the state she governs and spoke to a crowd larger than the entire town she was presided over as mayor and introduced herself to the world.  She did a fine job, getting by on pluck and earnest brow-furrowing – which I suspect is her general MO.

But the last three VPs have taught us something.  Dan Quayle made it painfully, comically clear that good intentions and sit-com facial expressions do not constitute vice presidential mettle.  Al Gore came along to redefine the role of vice president as ax-to-the-grindstone policy wonk and true executive partner.  Then came Dick Cheney, who elevated vice presidential power to unprecedented and dangerous heights.

On the heels of Cheney comes Sarah Palin – Quayle without the chops or the gravitas – and threatens to plunge us back decades.  Which, given the Cold War imaginings of her new boss, probably makes her a pretty good running mate after all.

 

*  On a side note: I’m currently taking bets on which male television pundit will first describe her as “spunky,” and what kind of gender card hell will rain down on him when he does…