Why Sarah Palin Will Not Be The GOP Nominee In 2012

Epitaphs are being written. Next steps considered. Late October is beginning to look a lot like late May did in the Democratic primary, when everyone knew the race was over except the candidate facing Barack Obama. Then, it was Hillary Clinton. This time, John McCain and Sarah Palin.

GOP partisans and pundits alike are turning to the new big question: WWSPD? On Thursday, Marc Ambinder posted "Palin 2012: The Argument." He laid out a valid and compelling case for why Sarah Palin will be the candidate to beat in the Republican primary, come 2012. I'd like to consider the opposite argument: Why Sarah Palin Won't Be the Nominee In 2012.

Decline of the Culture War
If we do, as it appears we will, slip into a bona fide Depression, it's unlikely we'll dig ourselves out in just four years - in which case, economic issues will again trump a manufactured culture war in 2012. The Evangelical community will be split between Huckabee and Palin, and post mortems of the '08 campaign are unlikely to sit well with Republicans, who aren't fond of victims in the same way Democrats are.

With the new Congress, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage will be a practical impossibility, and the issue will have settled onto states' shoulders. Several more states will have voted to allow it, and a handful will criminalize it. Either way, it will have a greatly reduced impact on national politics. And with a Democratic administration that is actively inclusive of the faith-based community, many churches will cease to be hotbeds of GOP organizing.

The Republicans are more likely to launch their attacks from the fiscal right, lining up behind Mitt Romney or the one man who has waged a successful revolt against a popular Democratic president: Newt Gingrich. A solid and unwavering fiscal conservative with a winning record and some experience reaching across the aisle (after leaving Congress).

A Maverick at the Party
In 2012, Sarah Palin will be in the unenviable position of rallying party loyalists from the standpoint of a "Maverick." When McCain faced the same crossroads this election cycle, he opted to toe the party line. Palin's own values and mores are much more in line with the party base than McCain's, so she shouldn't have so hard a time. But something's got to give, and in an election cycle when Republicans are challengers, rather than incumbents, a centrist appeal will be crucial to winning the general election.

If Sarah Palin finds herself in a primary battle against Newt Gingrich, a straight-talking, unflappable institution of the Republican party, she'll be forced into more "Maverick" grandstanding - a role she savors, but which doesn't give the gravitas she'll need to make her case to the general public.

Dr. Frankenstein's Moment of Recognition
The party that unleashed Sarah Palin on the world seems to have recognized that its monster is, indeed, alive - and many Republicans are stepping back slowly. She's already lost the support of conservative elites from the Wall Street Journal to the National Review and over the next four years, she may find herself hung out to dry, without the enduring support of a party that worked so hard to apply lipstick to whatever animal this candidacy was. As she finishes out her gubernatorial term without the benefit of McCain's cadre of lawyers, will she encounter more abuse-of-power trouble? As the press and the party has more time to vet her, will the unsavory (and patently unAmerican - sorry, Sarah, to use your word) activities of the AIP come back to haunt her?

The trick for the GOP in 2012 will be finding a way to harness the genie's magic while quietly placing the genie back in the bottle from whence she came.