Why Sarah Palin Will Not Be The GOP Nominee In 2012

Epitaphs are being written. Next steps considered. Late October is beginning to look a lot like late May did in the Democratic primary, when everyone knew the race was over except the candidate facing Barack Obama. Then, it was Hillary Clinton. This time, John McCain and Sarah Palin.

GOP partisans and pundits alike are turning to the new big question: WWSPD? On Thursday, Marc Ambinder posted "Palin 2012: The Argument." He laid out a valid and compelling case for why Sarah Palin will be the candidate to beat in the Republican primary, come 2012. I'd like to consider the opposite argument: Why Sarah Palin Won't Be the Nominee In 2012.

Decline of the Culture War
If we do, as it appears we will, slip into a bona fide Depression, it's unlikely we'll dig ourselves out in just four years - in which case, economic issues will again trump a manufactured culture war in 2012. The Evangelical community will be split between Huckabee and Palin, and post mortems of the '08 campaign are unlikely to sit well with Republicans, who aren't fond of victims in the same way Democrats are.

With the new Congress, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage will be a practical impossibility, and the issue will have settled onto states' shoulders. Several more states will have voted to allow it, and a handful will criminalize it. Either way, it will have a greatly reduced impact on national politics. And with a Democratic administration that is actively inclusive of the faith-based community, many churches will cease to be hotbeds of GOP organizing.

The Republicans are more likely to launch their attacks from the fiscal right, lining up behind Mitt Romney or the one man who has waged a successful revolt against a popular Democratic president: Newt Gingrich. A solid and unwavering fiscal conservative with a winning record and some experience reaching across the aisle (after leaving Congress).

A Maverick at the Party
In 2012, Sarah Palin will be in the unenviable position of rallying party loyalists from the standpoint of a "Maverick." When McCain faced the same crossroads this election cycle, he opted to toe the party line. Palin's own values and mores are much more in line with the party base than McCain's, so she shouldn't have so hard a time. But something's got to give, and in an election cycle when Republicans are challengers, rather than incumbents, a centrist appeal will be crucial to winning the general election.

If Sarah Palin finds herself in a primary battle against Newt Gingrich, a straight-talking, unflappable institution of the Republican party, she'll be forced into more "Maverick" grandstanding - a role she savors, but which doesn't give the gravitas she'll need to make her case to the general public.

Dr. Frankenstein's Moment of Recognition
The party that unleashed Sarah Palin on the world seems to have recognized that its monster is, indeed, alive - and many Republicans are stepping back slowly. She's already lost the support of conservative elites from the Wall Street Journal to the National Review and over the next four years, she may find herself hung out to dry, without the enduring support of a party that worked so hard to apply lipstick to whatever animal this candidacy was. As she finishes out her gubernatorial term without the benefit of McCain's cadre of lawyers, will she encounter more abuse-of-power trouble? As the press and the party has more time to vet her, will the unsavory (and patently unAmerican - sorry, Sarah, to use your word) activities of the AIP come back to haunt her?

The trick for the GOP in 2012 will be finding a way to harness the genie's magic while quietly placing the genie back in the bottle from whence she came.

Republican Mob Puts the GOP Brand in Jeopardy

(This was originally post at Huffington Post)

A lot of ink has been shed this election cycle on the topic of "rebuilding the Republican brand." Indeed, the Grand Old Party finds itself at a most dire juncture. On one side it has an incumbent leader with historically low approval ratings who is losing mounting court cases on the philosophy of national security he put in place and who is battling multiple catastrophes that fundamentally undermine the Republican philosophy of governance and economics. On the other side the party is fielding a presidential candidate whose main appeal has been his refusal to toe the party line and a vice presidential candidate who caters to one constituency of the party and is mostly unappealing to the rest. The GOP, three weeks from the presidential election, is in the throes of a wrenching identity crisis.

As a brand marketer, I spend my time crafting strategy and messages that enable brands to connect with consumers in a meaningful way. Cohesion, consistency and lifestyle appeal are crucial. In short, you want consumers to see your product and say "I know that brand, and it's the brand for people like me."

Warriors vs. Thinkers
In the past, Republicans have been successful at defining themselves in that light, using wedge issues to illuminate and exaggerate the difference between demographics, ultimately concluding "Republicans are people like me." We all remember Karl Rove's three winning Gs: God, guns and gays. With a vast, coordinated effort in 2000 and 2004, Republicans introduced state-level ballot initiatives that dovetailed with their national strategy of painting their opponents as "extreme" and "different" -- and therefore unacceptable.

But in 2008, something has broken down for Republicans, and there's more to blame than just a stacked deck. The GOP has a new face, and it's not the face of Sarah Palin. It is the face of anger, hatred and violence, and it threatens to eat away the Republican Party from the inside.

Led by war hero McCain and bellicose strategist Steve Schmidt in its battle to defeat a former president of the Harvard Law Review, the Republicans have divided the nation into "warriors" and "thinkers." Schmidt is a Rove protege who shares his mentor's love of underhanded tactics but none of his subtlety. Schmidt's strategy: boil Rove's signature wedge attack down to its most basic level, "otherness," and wage a campaign on this topic alone. This means painting Senator Obama as "elite" or "exotic" -- code words for "different" which, when applied to an ethnic minority, add up to clear race-baiting.

A New Republican Voice
On some fronts, his efforts have seen short-term success. Schmidt's insistence on the unorthodox (read: mavericky) choice of running mate Sarah Palin energized the base in a way that John McCain alone (or McCain's preferred pick of pro-choice Democratic exile Joe Lieberman) never could have. And recently, as the campaign reverted to character attacks, this newly energized base has taken their passion to a new and scary level.

In just the past week, Republicans at McCain and Palin speeches have shouted epithets, threatened violence and directed racial slurs at those in attendance -- and the news media has taken note. With the race heating up and policy debate taking a backseat to negative campaigning, this type of vitriol is becoming the main story in itself.

As McCain and Palin do nothing to tamp down the bloodlust among their supporters, they tacitly facilitate the rise of a new Republican voice. An angry, insular, xenophobic voice. And in so doing, the Republican Party, already facing an identity crisis, is defining itself anew for the next generation of voters.

The New "Others"
The American people are not, by and large, racists. We are a reasonable people who excel when the chips are down. We have been given to mob mentality and flights of fancy at times in our history, but what has made the country a superpower is its people. In 1968, when Robert F. Kennedy declared, shortly before his death, that the United States would elect an African-American president "in the next 40 years," this was a statement of his firm confidence, not that African-Americans were "worthy," but that American voters were wise. He believed in the ability of the American public to make decisions based on rationale and decency.

And in that sense, those who would advocate violence ("kill him!" - Florida, "off with his head!" - Pennsylvania), or make ridiculous, wild-eyed accusations ("terrorist!" - Pennsylvania) or hurl epithets at a professional doing his job ("sit down, boy!" - Florida) -- they are the ones who are "not like us."

At a time when a generation of new voters is swept up in a tide of support for Barack Obama, the GOP faces a bleak choice. Continuing this spiral away from decency into violent xenophobia; that is, toward extremism and away from the fundamental tenets of love and unselfishness that tie all religious traditions together. The party, with Schmidt at the tiller, is risking permanent damage to the Republican brand.

BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: Sources indicate that Barack Obama’s middle name is Hussein. The name, which runs in the Obama family, is also the name of former Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein. Many prominent pundits and political analysts have faulted Senator Obama for his middle name, pointing out that his decision to be named Barack Hussein Obama is an undeniable indicator of his terrorist sympathy.

Barack Obama spent a portion of his childhood in Indonesia, where his middle name helped him feel at home among the nation’s 200 million Muslims.

"I remember playing with Barack when we were nine years old," says Buana Bati, a childhood friend. “All the older boys held their sticks like they were guns and would scream 'death to America!' We weren’t quite sure what they meant by that, but Barack was never bashful. He stepped forward and said 'my middle name is Hussein!' He was immediately accepted in their group."

Upon returning to the United States and later matriculating at Columbia University in New York City, Barack Obama kept his middle name a secret. "I was determined not to let them know my true identity," Obama wrote in his memoir, Dreams From My Father. "Once they heard me utter the name Hussein, I knew my secret would be out." Casual students of the Arabic language may know Hussein to be a common, secular name that means "small, handsome one;" but to Al Qaeda operatives and old jihad hands, any utterance of "Hussein"” is no less than a battle cry.

"In Kandahar, where I grew up, there is a saying," said Nuri Al-Sadr, a recent immigrant to Dearborn, MI; "when Hussein inhabits the White House, the blood of the infidels will run in the streets like water." Mr. Al-Sadr, looking over his shoulder, then added, "of course, no one from my family has said this."

As the general public learns the truth about Senator Obama’s middle name, the reaction has been mixed. Many fervent supporters of Obama’s are unfazed. One such supporter, 21 year-old Kathy Rowlands from San Jose, CA, says "I just know he’s the One. And the Bible tells us that, when the Messiah returns, we may not know him. He may look like Jesus, he may look like Moses. I guess this proves that the Messiah is returning as Mohammed."

Others are less forgiving. Steven Williamson, a pipefitter, life-long Democrat and staunch Hillary Clinton supporter from Philadelphia, PA, shook his head from side to side while wiping a solitary tear from his eye. "I knew it," he said. "I knew it, I knew it, I knew it. From the first time I saw him, debating Hillary Clinton in South Carolina, I said to my wife, I said 'that man right there is a terrorist. And he’s going to bring down our country, sure as I’m sitting here.' Well, I hate to say I told you so."

Obama's Keys To Winning Tonight's Town Hall Debate

With one presidential and one vice presidential debate behind us, a pattern is emerging: each time, the Democratic candidate has come to the table armed with facts and policy proposals, while the Republican catered to pundits and the public with an amalgam of attitude and atmospherics, colloquialisms and avoidance-by-way-of-personal-anecdote.

And in tomorrow's town hall meeting in Nashville, John McCain will be on his home turf. McCain's been described as the "master of the town hall," and Nashville may present his last, best hope of wresting the momentum from Barack Obama. Rest assured, he'll be in fighting form.

Obama, who has been criticized by opponents for being "aloof" and "professorial," may have his work cut out for him. But his laid-back, unflappable demeanor and his down-to-earth lifestyle create an excellent opportunity to connect with the voters in the room and those watching on television. Here's what he needs to do to capitalize:

• Keep it short. Like Al Gore and John Kerry, Barack Obama is a victim of the Progressive's love of policy nuance. The Harvard lawyer may love building and presenting a case, but he'll be speaking to "ordinary Americans" - likely white, working class, and skewing older. He'll need to keep his responses short, pithy and punchy. This is no secret, and he's pulled it off plenty of times, so there's no need to worry; but he'll have to keep it in mind the whole time. Even one belabored answer risks losing the audience for good.
• Make eye contact. And not just with those in the room. Obama should split his time between speaking to the crowd and directly to the camera. In the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday, we all witnessed the contrast between Sarah Palin's eyes staring through the screen and Joe Biden's, cast downward as he addressed moderator Gwen Ifill. Obama will be wise to remember that the people he needs to win over are on the other side of the camera.
• Get a move on. We've all seen Obama in town hall meetings, half-sitting, allowing his comfort with the constituents to create a relaxed, personal atmosphere. Even seated, his presence still commands attention. But this doesn't translate as well on camera. By contrast, John McCain is a mover. He prowls the stage, cracking jokes and addressing his "friends." In the context of the emerging campaign narrative, this contrast can serve Obama well - Obama the cool hand versus the jumpy and erratic McCain - but he must be careful not to cede control of the room. Obama has an advantage standing next to the shorter, stooped McCain, and as he walks with his languid stride, even stepping into the audience to connect with questioners, he can remain the singular focus for the entire 90 minutes.
• Yes, words matter. Obama often uses clinical language, referring to "the middle class." In more populist moments, he opts for "folks." But in informal town halls, he must go a step further, into the second person. I'd like to see him directly address a questioner, or even the television audience, with "you." I'd like to see him ask a follow-up question of those in the audience, put full names to anecdotal characters, even tell stories that extend beyond the campaign trail, into his personal life. The majority of undecided voters are not bigots or cynics - they're just waiting for him to invite them in.

Obama has every advantage a candidate could ask for, and Tuesday night may be his opportunity, not just to extend his lead in the polls, but to upset the undisputed champion of the town hall meeting.

[Cross-post from HuffingtonPost.]